Sunday, May 20, 2012

Time to dip your toes at-least, if not more...

As per the previous post (which was around 13000 levels), that we might see a dip to 12300-12600 range and it was time to make a list of stocks to buy and research for ideas and wait... here is where we think the risk-reward started to get interesting technically as mentioned in several charts below:

FXE (Euro):
The biggest concern of all is start to get close to the support levels. It has bounced back a couple time previously. Checkout the chart below:


Similarly USD approaching the resistance zone...



And now lets approach the thing we all actually care about.. Why i mentioned 12300-12600 range is where the risk-reward starts to get good technically.. Here are few charts:

DOW JONES (Daily):
A complete cluster of supports close to 12100-12300 zone...

DOW (Weekly):
Most of the previous corrections have been more or less about 38% of the recent rally. We are approaching close to that level.. A longer term trend-line from the top shows the support around 12200-12300 zone too.

Bottom Line: In the mist of all the Euro and Greece noise, I feel its time to be optimistic...

Happy Investing!!



Monday, April 9, 2012

Ichan Enterprise LP - a P/E Proxy play!!

A good technical setup and interesting story. A couple of closing above 47 could lead the stock to new trajectory. Checkout the chart below:

More about this stock:
I look at it more like investing in a Private Equity firm (with a great track record), that invests in companies, turns it around and sell out of it, only to find out what next.
Example: Bought a bankrupt Stratosphere Casino in Vegas and sold it for $1.2B. Bought National Energy Group, TransTexas Gas, Panaco, and other properties for $625M, turned around and sold it for $1.6B in 18 months. These examples are enough to suggest the management is capable of turning around the companies pretty swiftly for 2-3-4 times the value they bought it for, which is impressive by any standards.
Currently, it owns Tropicana entertainment, Federal Mogul (fantastic company), American Railcar etc. Every company is at a different stage of restructuring and would possibly give similar returns.
Personal interest in the firm is in the tune of 93% (more then substantial) to suggest that the owner would not take super risky bets yet. But on the flip side once the stock starts to inch up, Ichan is smart enough to start making some stock deals and use stock as a currency which would be interesting to see (which makes me more bullish on the stock).
Feels like not a lot of downside given the business it owns and track record management has had. One can safely assume 15-20% returns in next 6 months to 1 year.

Happy Investing!!

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Time to be cautious and RESEARCH!!

Time is not to far for people who have been waiting to deploy cash and have complained all this while that they haven't been able to participate in the rally. 

Technically, we are near the retracement zone and i don't rule out 12300-12600 range in DOW.. This is where i would want to deploy some cash. Make a list of the stocks you might like. 


Buying is easy, deciding on what to buy is difficult. 

Happy Investing.

Monday, March 19, 2012

Big-cap OILS... Will they get bigger???

Is the oil mania going to be back yet?? or will all the major oil companies fall back from the previous resistances like they have done before? Something to watch out for when a whole lot of big cap names are forming a similar congestion pattern waiting to come out of it... Some of the favorites that are forming a bullshit pattern as of now are Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil(XOM), ConocoPhillips(COP), British Petroleum(BP)... charts of which are shown below:

Chevron Corp. (CVX):
Exxon Mobil (XOM):

ConocoPhillips (COP):


Keep an eye on all these.. Because if they all move in tandem it could well be a 5-7% move in a day if they breakout... Something to have on watch-list for a quick traders...

Apart from these quick punts, defensive names like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Procter & Gamble (PG) are on the watch list as well for a fresh leg of buying interest..

Happy trading!!

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Are we setting up for new highs? - 13,000 in DOW soon?

Have maintained the view of DOW in the range of 11700-11800 on the downside and 12200-12300 on the upside.. A very narrow range that the markets have respected when a lot of them had been talking about doom's day scenario.. This seems like a pretty bold post but i feel like we might see 12800-13000 levels in DOW soon.. I had mentioned this before that in a previous post to about it the chart of which is given below but now it feels like a lot of large-caps are heating up which might lead to index breaking out of the higher band of the range and switch gears for 12800-13000. Checkout the chart below posted below (might lot look current one since it was posted on 7th dec) but the view remains the same..


Now, this leads in few minds as to what makes me think so. Until recently a lot of large cap stocks looked like in the congestion so i felt that breaking out of the index might look a little difficult until we see the heavy weights breaking out of the range. The list of my favorite ones with charts are shown below:

I don't know how much more i can write about my favorite 3 - Intel Corp. (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG). For charts refer previous posts.


Abott Labs (ABT) - previously mentioned a low risk setup looks like breaking out of range.. chart posted before http://stockcharts7.blogspot.com/2011/12/abbott-labs-low-risk-trade-setup.html

Procter & Gamble (PG):


Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT):



Johnson & Johnson (JNJ):

Other stocks that look particularly interesting are:

Disney (DIS) - above 36.50-37

Happy holidays!!

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Intel Corp. (INTC) - Wasted decade?? OR I would say “Opportunity in the making”

Over the past 6-8 months I have maintained a long view on the two stocks which have gone up a little bit but that I feel is just about the start of a big trend – INTEL Corp. & Microsoft Corp.

INTEL Corp. (Ticker: INTC)

Have been recommending and personally interested in this stock for past few months and strongly recommending this stock to accumulate at lower levels (17-20) and on SIP basis irrespective of the price because what I feel is that the story is just about to being…


 The stock has been in a very narrow range of 17 to 23 for the most part of the decade except on a couple of occasions which did not last long. So the question now is that why do I so strongly feel that it would breakout of that range and inch higher? Predominantly the technical setup looks really beautiful and then a few numbers that I would like to point out which are publicly available but not realized in the stock price.

Checkout the financial data below:


Firstly, the company has a solid top-line growth in the last few quarters and I feel that it’s just the start of a major trend. On the margin front it enjoys eye-popping numbers that keep on beating everyone’s expectations on QoQ and YoY basis. Also, it suggests that this is a high entry barrier business which lets them enjoy high margins and with the brand name that it has created over years I expect them to at least keep up on that front (if not better).

Now, for all the naysayers who feel that this is just the US economic cycle reversal from 2008 crisis and because of that the revenues growth have popped up, so once things start to settle down or even deteriorate, the revenue growth will slow down and bla bla bla.. I have some good news for them. Checkout in the past decade the revenues as a function of geography which indicates that the management was smart enough to realize where the real growth is going further:


So this could as well be a proxy play for people to have an exposure to asia pacific region which shows no sign of a meaningful slowdown and by any standard have respectable growth numbers.
Not to mention that the dividend history of the stock has been 2.5-6% YoY for over a decade (for more info checkout http://www.intc.com/dividends.cfm). Currently 3.5% when everyone is aware of the savings rate in United states . Also, for all the P/E watchers for a company that is growing at such a rate 10-11 P/E looks light if anything.
I remain boldly bullish on this stock and recommend to buy on every dip and SIP at current and a little higher levels too as my projections in next 3 years are about 2x from current price if not more.


Another couple names that goes in my favorite lists are Google and Microsoft. Due to time constraints won’t be able to write more about it. But the story is similar and I hope to write about it someday.

Microsoft Corp (MSFT):



Google (GOOG): 
Have mentioned this so many times and yet again. To see the chart see link below:

Happy Investing!!





Thursday, December 15, 2011

Worry in Retail sector??

Retail is one sector that has held up really well lately but it seems like some of these stocks are losing steam and especially the run up ones might be something to keep an eye on... Deckers (DECK) showed some weakness today down nearly 10% on a downgrade.. Few other names that might join the camp soon are Chipotle (CMG), Dillards (DDS), Rost Stores (ROST)..

Chipotle - the old Cramer's favorite seems like losing its shine. Well still to early to say that.. But it has been unable to cross the 340 levels on last 4 occasions which shows lack of buying at higher levels... Again, too early to say but definitely something to keep an eye on if price action confirms cracks.. Checkout chart below..



Ross Store (ROST):



Dillards (DDS)

Another set of stock that might see weakness in near term are:

1.) Hansen Natural corp (HANS): Stock has seen a parabolic move and might see some cracks if we see profit booking in some of the run up names is .

2.) Stericycle (SRCL): another one that looks very weak on charts if breaks 75 levels


Abbot labs (ABT) and Google (GOOG) continue to remain favorite longs, charts of which are already posted earlier and view remains the same...

Intel (INTC) an accumulate one very decline for a medium to long term investor... Shall post a detailed funda / technical view on Intel soon...

Enjoy!