Sunday, May 20, 2012

Time to dip your toes at-least, if not more...

As per the previous post (which was around 13000 levels), that we might see a dip to 12300-12600 range and it was time to make a list of stocks to buy and research for ideas and wait... here is where we think the risk-reward started to get interesting technically as mentioned in several charts below:

FXE (Euro):
The biggest concern of all is start to get close to the support levels. It has bounced back a couple time previously. Checkout the chart below:


Similarly USD approaching the resistance zone...



And now lets approach the thing we all actually care about.. Why i mentioned 12300-12600 range is where the risk-reward starts to get good technically.. Here are few charts:

DOW JONES (Daily):
A complete cluster of supports close to 12100-12300 zone...

DOW (Weekly):
Most of the previous corrections have been more or less about 38% of the recent rally. We are approaching close to that level.. A longer term trend-line from the top shows the support around 12200-12300 zone too.

Bottom Line: In the mist of all the Euro and Greece noise, I feel its time to be optimistic...

Happy Investing!!



Monday, April 9, 2012

Ichan Enterprise LP - a P/E Proxy play!!

A good technical setup and interesting story. A couple of closing above 47 could lead the stock to new trajectory. Checkout the chart below:

More about this stock:
I look at it more like investing in a Private Equity firm (with a great track record), that invests in companies, turns it around and sell out of it, only to find out what next.
Example: Bought a bankrupt Stratosphere Casino in Vegas and sold it for $1.2B. Bought National Energy Group, TransTexas Gas, Panaco, and other properties for $625M, turned around and sold it for $1.6B in 18 months. These examples are enough to suggest the management is capable of turning around the companies pretty swiftly for 2-3-4 times the value they bought it for, which is impressive by any standards.
Currently, it owns Tropicana entertainment, Federal Mogul (fantastic company), American Railcar etc. Every company is at a different stage of restructuring and would possibly give similar returns.
Personal interest in the firm is in the tune of 93% (more then substantial) to suggest that the owner would not take super risky bets yet. But on the flip side once the stock starts to inch up, Ichan is smart enough to start making some stock deals and use stock as a currency which would be interesting to see (which makes me more bullish on the stock).
Feels like not a lot of downside given the business it owns and track record management has had. One can safely assume 15-20% returns in next 6 months to 1 year.

Happy Investing!!

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Time to be cautious and RESEARCH!!

Time is not to far for people who have been waiting to deploy cash and have complained all this while that they haven't been able to participate in the rally. 

Technically, we are near the retracement zone and i don't rule out 12300-12600 range in DOW.. This is where i would want to deploy some cash. Make a list of the stocks you might like. 


Buying is easy, deciding on what to buy is difficult. 

Happy Investing.

Monday, March 19, 2012

Big-cap OILS... Will they get bigger???

Is the oil mania going to be back yet?? or will all the major oil companies fall back from the previous resistances like they have done before? Something to watch out for when a whole lot of big cap names are forming a similar congestion pattern waiting to come out of it... Some of the favorites that are forming a bullshit pattern as of now are Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil(XOM), ConocoPhillips(COP), British Petroleum(BP)... charts of which are shown below:

Chevron Corp. (CVX):
Exxon Mobil (XOM):

ConocoPhillips (COP):


Keep an eye on all these.. Because if they all move in tandem it could well be a 5-7% move in a day if they breakout... Something to have on watch-list for a quick traders...

Apart from these quick punts, defensive names like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Procter & Gamble (PG) are on the watch list as well for a fresh leg of buying interest..

Happy trading!!