Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Are we setting up for new highs? - 13,000 in DOW soon?

Have maintained the view of DOW in the range of 11700-11800 on the downside and 12200-12300 on the upside.. A very narrow range that the markets have respected when a lot of them had been talking about doom's day scenario.. This seems like a pretty bold post but i feel like we might see 12800-13000 levels in DOW soon.. I had mentioned this before that in a previous post to about it the chart of which is given below but now it feels like a lot of large-caps are heating up which might lead to index breaking out of the higher band of the range and switch gears for 12800-13000. Checkout the chart below posted below (might lot look current one since it was posted on 7th dec) but the view remains the same..


Now, this leads in few minds as to what makes me think so. Until recently a lot of large cap stocks looked like in the congestion so i felt that breaking out of the index might look a little difficult until we see the heavy weights breaking out of the range. The list of my favorite ones with charts are shown below:

I don't know how much more i can write about my favorite 3 - Intel Corp. (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG). For charts refer previous posts.


Abott Labs (ABT) - previously mentioned a low risk setup looks like breaking out of range.. chart posted before http://stockcharts7.blogspot.com/2011/12/abbott-labs-low-risk-trade-setup.html

Procter & Gamble (PG):


Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT):



Johnson & Johnson (JNJ):

Other stocks that look particularly interesting are:

Disney (DIS) - above 36.50-37

Happy holidays!!

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Intel Corp. (INTC) - Wasted decade?? OR I would say “Opportunity in the making”

Over the past 6-8 months I have maintained a long view on the two stocks which have gone up a little bit but that I feel is just about the start of a big trend – INTEL Corp. & Microsoft Corp.

INTEL Corp. (Ticker: INTC)

Have been recommending and personally interested in this stock for past few months and strongly recommending this stock to accumulate at lower levels (17-20) and on SIP basis irrespective of the price because what I feel is that the story is just about to being…


 The stock has been in a very narrow range of 17 to 23 for the most part of the decade except on a couple of occasions which did not last long. So the question now is that why do I so strongly feel that it would breakout of that range and inch higher? Predominantly the technical setup looks really beautiful and then a few numbers that I would like to point out which are publicly available but not realized in the stock price.

Checkout the financial data below:


Firstly, the company has a solid top-line growth in the last few quarters and I feel that it’s just the start of a major trend. On the margin front it enjoys eye-popping numbers that keep on beating everyone’s expectations on QoQ and YoY basis. Also, it suggests that this is a high entry barrier business which lets them enjoy high margins and with the brand name that it has created over years I expect them to at least keep up on that front (if not better).

Now, for all the naysayers who feel that this is just the US economic cycle reversal from 2008 crisis and because of that the revenues growth have popped up, so once things start to settle down or even deteriorate, the revenue growth will slow down and bla bla bla.. I have some good news for them. Checkout in the past decade the revenues as a function of geography which indicates that the management was smart enough to realize where the real growth is going further:


So this could as well be a proxy play for people to have an exposure to asia pacific region which shows no sign of a meaningful slowdown and by any standard have respectable growth numbers.
Not to mention that the dividend history of the stock has been 2.5-6% YoY for over a decade (for more info checkout http://www.intc.com/dividends.cfm). Currently 3.5% when everyone is aware of the savings rate in United states . Also, for all the P/E watchers for a company that is growing at such a rate 10-11 P/E looks light if anything.
I remain boldly bullish on this stock and recommend to buy on every dip and SIP at current and a little higher levels too as my projections in next 3 years are about 2x from current price if not more.


Another couple names that goes in my favorite lists are Google and Microsoft. Due to time constraints won’t be able to write more about it. But the story is similar and I hope to write about it someday.

Microsoft Corp (MSFT):



Google (GOOG): 
Have mentioned this so many times and yet again. To see the chart see link below:

Happy Investing!!





Thursday, December 15, 2011

Worry in Retail sector??

Retail is one sector that has held up really well lately but it seems like some of these stocks are losing steam and especially the run up ones might be something to keep an eye on... Deckers (DECK) showed some weakness today down nearly 10% on a downgrade.. Few other names that might join the camp soon are Chipotle (CMG), Dillards (DDS), Rost Stores (ROST)..

Chipotle - the old Cramer's favorite seems like losing its shine. Well still to early to say that.. But it has been unable to cross the 340 levels on last 4 occasions which shows lack of buying at higher levels... Again, too early to say but definitely something to keep an eye on if price action confirms cracks.. Checkout chart below..



Ross Store (ROST):



Dillards (DDS)

Another set of stock that might see weakness in near term are:

1.) Hansen Natural corp (HANS): Stock has seen a parabolic move and might see some cracks if we see profit booking in some of the run up names is .

2.) Stericycle (SRCL): another one that looks very weak on charts if breaks 75 levels


Abbot labs (ABT) and Google (GOOG) continue to remain favorite longs, charts of which are already posted earlier and view remains the same...

Intel (INTC) an accumulate one very decline for a medium to long term investor... Shall post a detailed funda / technical view on Intel soon...

Enjoy!

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

GOLD and DOW

Have been talking about gold for quite sometime to some close friends about it having made a major top in 1850-1900 range... Chart attached below shows the reason why...



A lot of fundamental guys have been very positive on gold because of the noise in Europe, US, bankruptcy, interest rates, currency issues and what not (which i frankly don't understand and i believe not a whole lot of do either). They have consistently recommended me have some portion of my portfolio as gold - "TO DIVERSIFY".. with a target price of 2200 and 2500.

Now, what has happened is large number of people are stuck buying gold at higher levels, especially the funds which have allocated some portion of their portfolio to gold. Most of today's selling i believe might be them who have to sell out of it to minimize losses ahead of the year end since they don't see any near term upside in it.

Very very crucial level to keep an eye on is 1500-1550 where we have seen many previous tops (as shown in chart) on top of which gold remains in a very oversold range (RSI on the chart) which is not seen to often and hence we might see it range bound action or an oversold bounce. Quick traders might play a bounce, but if we see an extended bounce (which i really really doubt) up to 1660-1675 it should be considered as a strong exit zone of even a short sale.

Index views:
Dow views remains the same for now 11700-11800 range on the downside and 12250-12300 on the upside remains the range. We should definitely not rule out entering painful zone if we don't hold the lower range which if happens might take a lot of time to recover.


Happy investing!!

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

DOW, OIL and others

Couple of very interesting charts...

Index view: Dow seems to be holding a narrow range with 11700-1800 levels on the downside and 12300 on the upside.. Keep an eye on TLT chart posted yesterday any weakness there might suggest a santa rally which might take it upto 12700-12800 levels..

Oil view: WTIC seems to have found a strong support near 100 mark... on the upside it might test 102.50-103 which appears to be a stiff resistance zone..

Stock specific views: Just like GOOG chart posted yest another one that looks really interesting long setup is EQIX, above 105-110 levels might see a quick 10-15% move.. something to keep an eye on.... Other then that a few names that appear good on the long side are GRA, CVH, ARW, ALB, ABT....

Charts of all 3 are posted below for quick glance...












Tuesday, December 6, 2011

TLT - bond rally over / consolidation?

Is bond rally over or are we entering into long consolidation....

GOOG - are we in for a quick rally?


One of my personal favorites showing some strength. This would be the 5th attempt to cross 625-630 levels which it has been flirting it for about 2 years.

Keep a close eye on this one above 635 - could well be fireworks and quick 10-15% rally.

CHKP - possible double top..

Possible double top.. confirmation on close below 51..

High risky traders can short at current levels with the stoploss at 56.. extreme short term target 51... under which we may be bigger cracks... For a quick trade wait for a confirmation of under a 51..

BRCM - dead duck?

Consistently closing under 31... can sell at current levels and on any bounce upto 34-35 levels with a stoploss at 36..

AMZN - dangerously flirting..


Looks weak and might see a quick drop, first immediate support 180 below which might see bigger cracks.. 180 level is the key level to watch out for, violating which would open gates for 160..

Abbott Labs - Low risk trade setup.


Classic defensive play, looks set for a fresh run. Consistently closing above 53 levels. Could do 60 in the medium term and 56-57 in extreme short term.